Closure of 28 embassies, ban on military leave… Will the 5th Middle East war break out – Maeil Business Newspaper VRESP TODAY

As the possibility of bombing the embassy increases

Additional air defense manpower was mobilized.

State of emergency for prolongation of war in Gaza

Israel has fallen into a ‘beleaguered’ crisis after six months of war in Palestine. The death toll in the Gaza Strip, Palestine, has already exceeded 33,000, and the recent accidental explosion of a civilian relief truck has drawn criticism from major allies such as the United States and the United Kingdom. In addition, the predicament deepened as Israel was identified as the mastermind behind the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria. This is because the possibility of direct combat with Iran, which has so far refrained from direct participation in the Palestinian war, has increased. Israel immediately went on high alert, closing 28 overseas embassies and banning military leave.

On the 6th (local time), the New York Times quoted an anonymous Iranian official as saying, “Iran has placed its entire military on high alert and has decided to respond directly to the Damascus attack to create deterrence.” Creating deterrence refers to a strategy of making the adversary realize that the losses from retaliation are greater than the gains from an attack.

In particular, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard stated that retaliation against Israel is a “national demand,” and Brigadier General Mohammad Bagheri, who serves as the Chief of Staff, warned, “We will design attacks to cause maximum damage to the enemy so that they will regret it.” On this day, Revolutionary Guard Commander Hossein Salami also said, “Iran has decided to make Israel pay for the airstrikes,” and emphasized, “The Zionist regime cannot avoid the consequences of the damage it has caused.”

Hezbollah, a pro-Iranian Lebanese armed group, also signaled its participation in Iran’s retaliatory war. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said in a video speech, “Hezbollah is not afraid of any war,” and “We are fully prepared for war with Israel, and Iran’s response is coming without any doubt.” Yemen’s Houthi rebels also attacked a civilian commercial vessel in the Red Sea on the 6th, further raising tensions in the Middle East.

Iran, a leading Shiite power in the Middle East and leading the ‘Axis of Resistance’, has not directly participated in the battle since Hamas’ attack on Israel last year. However, it is known that the United States and Jews led the battle from the rear through a proxy war on the grounds that although they are Sunni, they are attacking Hamas and Gaza citizens, who are also Muslims. Representatively, it engaged in combat with Hezbollah at the border between Israel and Lebanon, and also supported Yemen’s Houthi rebels in attacking Western merchant ships in the Red Sea. In January of this year, a missile attack was launched against a U.S. military base through a Syrian militia. NYT described this as Iran’s ‘shadow war’.

If Iran launches an all-out attack on Israel and the United States and Western countries participate in the war in response, the situation could escalate into a ‘fifth Middle East war’. Iran also seemed to be concerned about the escalation of war in the region and warned the United States not to intervene. On the 5th, Mohammad Jamsidi, deputy chief of staff for political affairs in the Iranian President’s Office, said through social media, “Iran has requested in writing the United States not to fall into Netanyahu’s trap,” and “the United States must stay out of the way to avoid being attacked.”

NYT and CNN believe that although it is difficult to predict the timing and method of Iran’s retaliation, it is likely to be carried out on the ‘Night of Power’, known as the day when Prophet Muhammad received revelations from God, around the 10th, the end of Ramadan.

Israel and the United States immediately went on alert. Israel has ordered the closure of 28 overseas embassies at high risk of attack and is preparing for retaliation by suspending vacations for combat troops and mobilizing additional air defense personnel.

The Israeli military, which did not make a separate statement after the consulate bombing, responded in an interview with CNN on the 6th that it would continue to attack Iran. Israeli military chief spokesman Daniel Hagari claimed, “The building attacked was neither a consulate nor an embassy,” and “it was a Quds Force military building disguised as a civilian building in Damascus.” “We remain focused on our war goals and plan to continue to do everything that contributes to achieving those goals,” he continued. The Israeli military is said to have recently held a ‘multi-front situation assessment’ meeting and rearmed its combat readiness.

This is because we must prepare for attacks from various directions, including the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, and Syria.

Immediately after the consulate bombing, the United States notified Iran that it had no prior knowledge of the bombing and warned it not to attack American assets because of this incident.

With war clouds looming in the Middle East, international oil prices, which started at around $70 per barrel at the beginning of the year, are now exceeding $90. Not only is the possibility of Iran participating in the war increasing, but attacks on each country’s energy infrastructure are intensifying in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Ipek Ozkadeskaya, senior analyst at Swiss Quart Bank, said, “Oil prices will rise in the short term,” and added, “The risk of a short-term rally to the range of $95 to $100 per barrel cannot be ruled out.”

Meanwhile, large-scale anti-war protests are taking place in Israel due to the prolongation of the war. According to AFP, 100,000 people gathered at Democracy Square in Tel Aviv, the capital, on the 6th to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s regime, a ceasefire, and the release of hostages. However, ceasefire negotiations are still sluggish. In Egypt, major mediators such as the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan are gathering to negotiate, but Hamas is repeatedly demanding a permanent ceasefire and withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of hostages.

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